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Geopolitics
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Net tone▼ −46% today
Market check
Developing6 storylines
Geopolitics in three lines
- Gold futures fell to around $4,230 an ounce, a seven-week low, amid the US-Iran impasse
- Iran sought sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Mike Waltz said
- Brent crude rose to $106.59, up 2.18%, after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal
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Market move▼ bearishEuropean Gas Prices Rise on Prospects of Prolonged LNG DisruptionsEuropean gas prices rose amid concerns over prolonged disruptions to LNG flowsNatural gasIranPetronet LNG
● mixedUK police 'investigate Iran link' to alleged bomb threat against base hosting U.S. Air ForceU.K. counter-terrorism police are investigating a possible Iran link to an alleged bomb threatUnited KingdomIran
Market move▼ bearishGlobal Market: Chinese stocks slide as US-China optimism fades, tech shares tumbleChina’s CSI300 fell 2.2% as optimism from the US-China summit fadedChinaUS–ChinaAsian markets
Market move▼ bearishTreasury Yields Rise Amid U.S.-Iran Diplomatic StalemateTreasury yields rose in Asian trade on MondayIranMiddle EastCrude oil
Market move▼ bearishCrude Oil Prices Spike: Brent Jumps 3% To Cross $107 Per Barrel As US-Iran War Uncertainty PersistsBrent jumped 3% to cross $107 per barrelCrude oilIranMiddle East
Market move▼ bearishIndia VIX spikes 14% as oil, geopolitical risks trigger market sell-offIndia VIX spiked 14% as oil and geopolitical risks triggered a market sell-offNifty and SensexCrude oilMarket valuations
Market move▼ bearishAsian shares trade mixed as oil prices rise amid Iran war uncertaintyAsian shares traded mixed as oil prices rose amid uncertainty over the Iran warIranCrude oilAsian markets
Market move● mixedOil Moves Higher on Rekindled War Fears - Crude Oil Prices TodayCrude oilOPEC+Diesel
● mixedIndian economy demonstrates resilience despite increased volatility amid re-escalating tensions in West Asia: RBIRBI said the Indian economy demonstrates resilience amid rising energy prices and increased volatilityRBIMiddle EastEconomic growth
Market move▼ bearishINR stays pressured as oil prices rebound amid the ongoing West Asia conflictThe rupee fell 20 paise to 95.95 against the US dollar in early tradeRupeeCrude oilMiddle East
Market move▼ bearishSensex tanks 730 points amid surging crude oil prices, geopolitical uncertaintiesSensex fell 730 points to 73,170.12 in early tradeNifty and SensexCrude oilBSE
Market move● mixedGold & Silver plunge 4%: Why falling Iran peace talks & US yield triggered selloffGoldSilverIran
● mixedGerman security agencies face dilemma after victories for far right and far leftEuropean UnionUkraineRussia–Ukraine war
Market move● mixedWhy Bitcoin is holding near $84,000 despite rate and geopolitical risksBitcoin is consolidating around $84,000BitcoinCryptoUS Treasuries
Market move▼ bearishGold slips below ₹1.50 lakh on US-Iran impasse; silver tumbles tooComex gold futures fell to around $4,230 per ounce, a seven-week lowGoldSilverIran
▼ bearish‘They were asking for everything up front:’ US Ambassador to UN Mike Waltz explains why Trump rejected Iran's proposalIran sought sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of HormuzIranStrait of HormuzDonald Trump
Market move▼ bearishBrent crude rises above $106 as Trump rejects Iran’s proposalBrent crude was $106.59, up 2.18%, at 9:35 am MondayCrude oilIranDonald Trump
Market move▼ bearishMarkets open lower as crude surge, FII selling and geopolitical jitters weigh on sentimentNifty fell 0.88% to 22,937 as markets opened lowerCrude oilFII flowsNifty and Sensex
Market move▼ bearishBitcoin, Nasdaq futures decline as Trump won’t rule out more Iran strikesTrump did not rule out further strikes on Iran before the US midterm electionsBitcoinDonald TrumpIran
● mixedTaiwan pushes back after Xi seeks to win over Trump on World War Two narrativeTaiwanXi JinpingDonald Trump
Market move▼ bearishAsian Currencies Weaken Amid Ongoing Geopolitical TensionsAsian currencies weakened against the dollar amid elevated oil prices and global yieldsAsian marketsCrude oilBond yields
Market move▼ bearishRupee faces pressure as Iran talks stall; RBI intervention seen as a bufferThe rupee settled at 95.8125 to the dollar on FridayRupeeIranRBI
▼ bearishHormuz Tensions: Iran Hits Back At US Over Strait Control, Points To Oil Price PremiumIran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Trump rejected Tehran's conditionsStrait of HormuzIranCrude oil
Market move● mixedIndian shares on track for tepid open as US-Iran stalemate lifts oil pricesIranCrude oilNifty and Sensex
Market move● mixedCommodity Corner: Oil rebounds on middle east tensions, gold extends declineCrude oilMiddle EastGold
Market move▼ bearishOil Price Today (September 28): Crude oil gains to $106 as Trump rejects Iran deal. Where are prices headed?Brent rose $1.65, or 1.50%, to $106 a barrelCrude oilIranDonald Trump
Market move▼ bearishOil Prices Rise Again: Trump rejects Iran proposal; markets stay volatileOil prices surged on Monday after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposalCrude oilDonald TrumpIran
Market move▼ bearishOil prices rebound after Trump rejects peace deal to resolve Iran conflictBrent crude rose $1.32, or 1.27%, to $105.64 a barrelCrude oilDonald TrumpIran
Market move▼ bearishGold Declines As Hormuz Impasse Keeps Rate-Hike Bets ElevatedOil rose after Iran refused to soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzIranDonald Trump
Market move▼ bearishOil heads higher as US-Iran peace talks in stalemateOil prices rebounded more than 1% as Middle East tensions persistedCrude oilMiddle EastIran
▼ bearishMore US Strikes On Iran? Trump Hints 'It's Possible'; Tehran Says Fully Prepared For 'Doomsday' WarTrump said the US could end the Iran conflict soon, after which oil prices would fall sharplyIranDonald TrumpCrude oil
▼ bearishTrump says US will win Iran war soon; does not rule out strikes before midtermsTrump said the US-Iran conflict would be won “very soon”IranDonald TrumpUS midterms
Market move● mixedAsia stocks start cautiously as oil climbs on doubts over US-Iran truceIranAsian marketsCrude oil
● mixedTrump Says Men Arrested In UK Aimed To Attack Shared BaseTrump said men arrested in the UK aimed to attack a shared baseUnited KingdomDonald TrumpRussia
Market move● mixedDollar firms as US-Iran tensions lift oil and strengthen hawkish Fed betsThe dollar strengthened as investors anticipated inflation data and central bank decisionsUS dollarIranCrude oil
Market move▼ bearishRupee and government bonds face pressure as oil rises and Iran diplomacy hopes fadeThe rupee and government bonds are vulnerable as oil prices climbRupeeG-secsCrude oil
Market move▼ bearishGIFT Nifty signals weak start as Asian markets trade mixedGIFT Nifty signalled a negative start for Indian equitiesNifty and SensexFII flowsCrude oil
Market move● mixedOil prices climb as Iran holds firm on Hormuz terms and Trump rejects proposalCrude oilIranStrait of Hormuz
● mixedIran pressed to make nuclear concessions to revive peace talks with USIranMiddle EastNuclear power
● mixedCNBC Daily Open: The art of the deal-ishXi Jinping’s Washington visit brought more personal diplomacy than breakthroughsXi JinpingUS–ChinaChina
Market move▼ bearishOil Rises on Geopolitical Risks, Stockpile DeclineOil gained amid geopolitical risks and a decline in stockpilesCrude oilIranRussian oil
Market move▼ bearishCrude Oil Prices Rise 1% After Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal; Brent Near $98, Hormuz In FocusWTI fell 2.3% to settle at $92.41 a barrelCrude oilDonald TrumpIran
Market move▼ bearishPre-market action: Here's the trade setup for today's sessionIndian markets are correcting amid global geopolitical tensions and excessive valuationsNifty and SensexMarket valuationsFII flows
Market move▼ bearishOil gains over 1% as Trump rejects Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz StraitOil prices gained over 1% after Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of HormuzCrude oilDonald TrumpIran
Market move● mixedFestive shopping to pinch as Iran war sets AC, TV prices on fireIranFestive seasonInput costs
Market move▼ bearishDow futures fall close to 200 points, oil prices rise as Trump rejects Iran proposalDow futures fell close to 200 points as oil prices roseGlobal marketsCrude oilDonald Trump
Policy● mixedCould your protein powder cost more? The US-Canada trade war is putting whey at riskUS-Canada trade tensions put whey under tariff and import-restriction riskCanadaTrade and tariffsUS tariffs
Market move▼ bearishOil rises as Iran holds to Strait of Hormuz proposal rejected by TrumpOil rose as Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzCrude oilIran
Market move● mixedIran-linked diesel price spike makes electric trucks cheaper than diesel in key EU markets, environmental group saysDieselCommercial vehiclesEuropean Union
● mixedSouth Korea demands apology from Ukraine over North Korean POW disclosureSouth Korea accused Ukraine of breaching a confidentiality deal over transferring two North Korean POWs to SeoulUkraineRussia–Ukraine war
● mixedIsrael's Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi on Sunday, Israeli official saysIsraelMiddle EastBenjamin Netanyahu
● mixedRussian attacks kills three in Ukrainian cities, nine injured in Kyiv strikes, officials sayRussia–Ukraine warUkraineRussia
● mixedThe art of 'diplotainment'The Trump-Xi summit yielded few substantive gainsDonald TrumpXi JinpingUS–China
Policy● mixedImport duty cut on sunflower oil has a significant Russian backdropSunflower oil import-duty cuts intersect with India’s growing edible-oil import dependenceImport dutiesFarm commoditiesRussia
● mixedThere wasn’t much to Xi: A red carpet, a fragile truce and the search for US-China stabilityUS–ChinaTaiwanChina
● mixedHezbollah plans to contribute to project to house thousands of Lebanese displaced, chief saysMiddle East
● mixed5 Men Arrested Near UK's RAF Fairford Base Used For Iran StrikesFive men were arrested near RAF Fairford, a base used for Iran strikesUnited KingdomIran
● mixedDonald Trump Expects More US-Iran Talks This Week: ReportsTrump rejects Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzIranDonald Trump
● mixedForeign secy Misri meets US lawmakers; Russia sanctions bill and India-US ties in focusVikram Misri met a bipartisan US Congressional delegationRussiaRussian oilTrade deals
● mixedRussia-Europe balancing act ahead for India as Modi lines up Dec visitsModi plans December visits to Western countries and Russia amid shifting global tiesNarendra ModiRussiaRussian oil
Policy▼ bearishUS trade deal could shield India from 100% tariff under Russian sanctions law: SourcesGraham Act allows tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oilTrade dealsRussiaDonald Trump
Market move● mixedGold, Silver Face Another Choppy Spell This Week As US Data, West Asia Tensions Take Centre Stage: AnalystsGold and silver face another choppy week as US data and West Asia tensions take centre stageGoldSilverUS dollar
● mixedIran's foreign minister keeps indirect talks with the U.S. open; Iranian navy claims capture of underwater droneIran’s foreign minister says talks are the only way to break the deadlock with the USIranStrait of Hormuz
● mixedIndia-Russia Defence Ties: Russian Envoy Denis Alipov Says It's Not A 'Zero-Sum Game'Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov said India-Russia ties are rooted in trust and mutual partnershipRussiaDefence
● mixedA World War II-era feud is threatening a pivotal alliance for UkraineUkraineRussia–Ukraine warEuropean Union
Market move● mixedStock Markets This Week: Geopolitical Developments, Crude Oil To Be Key Drivers, Say AnalystsMarkets will track geopolitical developments and crude oil pricesCrude oilInflationNifty and Sensex
● mixedSouth Korean military, UN command launch investigation into DMZ explosionDefenceUnited Nations
Market move● mixedWeek Ahead On D-Street: Auto Sales, Crude Oil, US-Iran Conflict Among Key Triggers To Drive Sensex, NiftySensex and Nifty entered the final week of September after a seven-week losing streakNifty and SensexCrude oilIran
● mixedRussian strikes kill civilians and hit data centres and logistics targets in UkraineReports put the death toll at four and six, respectivelyRussia–Ukraine warRussiaUkraine
Market move▼ bearishMark mood check: Crude, US-Iran talks and economic data to drive Dalal Street this weekDalal Street faces a holiday-shortened week, with crude prices and US-Iran talks in focusCrude oilIranNifty and Sensex
● mixedPalestinian death toll in Gaza war rises above 74,000 since war beganPalestinian death toll in the Israel-Hamas war has surpassed 74,000GazaIsraelMiddle East
Market move● mixedGeopolitics, crude oil and macro signals expected to steer markets in a shortened weekUS-Iran diplomatic talks and crude oil prices are in focusIranCrude oilBond yields
Market move▼ bearishWill Nifty, Sensex tumble on Monday? 5 factors which will drive D-Street action this weekNifty has declined for seven consecutive weeksIranCrude oilNifty and Sensex
Market move● mixedNatural gas defies energy shock as strong supply keeps prices in checkNatural gas prices remain around $2.50-$3.50/MMBtu despite crude volatilityNatural gasCrude oilOil and gas companies
Market move● mixedWhat will drive stock market this week? US yields, crude and geopolitics in focusCrude oilBond yieldsUS Treasuries
● mixedRussia backs India's bid for a permanent UN Security Council seatRussia supported India's bid while opposing additional seats for Western nationsRussiaJapan
● mixedNorth Korea is testing swarm attacks mixing drones and missilesTaiwanUkraineRussia–Ukraine war
Market move▼ bearishEurope braces for LNG tug of war with AsiaEU gas stores are at record lows, raising competition with Asia for LNG cargoesNatural gasEuropean UnionIran
● mixedRussia defies German calls to ease off its 'dangerous' escalation toward itRussia’s top diplomat rejected German calls to ease its escalation toward GermanyRussiaRussia–Ukraine warUkraine
▲ bullishRussian crude supplies enabled India to cushion against oil supply shocks caused by West Asian war: Deputy FMRussia increased oil supplies to India amid West Asian conflict disruptionsRussian oilRussiaCrude oil
● mixedIsraeli peers have a word on upcoming pollsIsrael’s upcoming elections are being closely followed by regional neighboursIsraelMiddle East
● mixedUS claims successes in isolating IranTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he sent envoys worldwide to pressure countries to economically isolate IranIranScott Bessent
▼ bearishJaishankar calls targeting of commercial shipping, seafarers ‘simply unacceptable’ amid Gulf conflictIndia urged restraint and de-escalation amid the Gulf conflictShipping and logisticsShipping Corporation Of IndiaShipping routes
● mixedUBS discusses potential political scenarios in Germany amid elevated risksEuropean UnionEuropean markets
● mixedRussian crude cushioned India from oil shock, says Andrey RudenkoRussian oil supplies helped cushion India from an oil shockRussian oilRussiaCrude oil
● mixedTrump renews Russia-Ukraine peace push, urges Zelensky, Putin to ‘make a deal... settle’Trump urged Zelensky and Putin to “settle” and make a dealRussia–Ukraine warDonald TrumpRussia
▼ bearish‘Because they’re dying’, ‘They have no money now’: Trump reveals why Iran wants Strait of Hormuz reopenedTehran seeks sanctions relief, an end to the blockade and a ceasefire before fully reopening the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzIranShipping routes
● mixedAt UN, Russia and Germany's top diplomats hold first talks since 2022RussiaRussia–Ukraine warUnited Nations
● mixedJaishankar accuses Pakistan of terrorism and says India will defend itselfJaishankar called Pakistan a “serial practitioner of terrorism” at the UNPakistanIndia–Pakistan
● mixedBenjamin Netanyahu Says Oct 7 Attack By Hamas Was Like 16 Times '9/11' For IsraelNetanyahu compared the October 7 Hamas attack to 16 times 9/11Benjamin NetanyahuIsraelGaza
● mixedUN mission warns disruption to Libya oil infrastructure could trigger sanctionsCrude oilInfrastructureUnited Nations
● mixedRussia may intensify hybrid warfare against NATO in coming months, Denmark warns; Putin rejects claimsDenmark expects Russia to intensify hybrid activity against NATO in coming monthsRussiaRussia–Ukraine war
● mixedDonald Trump Again Says Iran 'Can Not Have A Nuclear Weapon'Trump reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon in a Truth Social postDonald TrumpIran
▼ bearishIran Warns US Bases In Middle East Will Be Targeted If Washington 'Makes A Mistake'Iran warned it would target US bases in the Middle East if Washington attacksIranStrait of HormuzMiddle East
● mixedChina, US Reach Agreements On Iran, Trade, Military Crisis Prevention: ReportChina and the US reached consensus on trade, Iran, AI and military cooperation after Xi Jinping and Donald Trump talksUS–ChinaTrade and tariffsTrade deals
Market move▼ bearishSame playbook, different numbers: Why FPI selling may not be the story it looks likeIndian equities extended their losing streak amid elevated crude, US Treasury yields and geopolitical risksFII flowsCrude oilUS Treasuries
● mixedHormuz Crisis: Iran President Pezeshkian Says Diplomacy, Not Force, Can Reopen StraitStrait of HormuzIranShipping routes
● mixedOverwhelmed by Ukraine’s drones, Russia tells businesses to defend themselvesUkraineRussiaRussia–Ukraine war
● mixedUkraine says it struck Russian oil refinery as drone attacks intensifyUkraineRussiaRussian oil
● mixedHouthis attack Saudi Arabia again as Trump rejects ceasefire offerSaudi air defences intercepted two Houthi drones targeting RiyadhHouthisSaudi ArabiaIran
● mixedRussia-Ukraine war: Moscow's decree forces pvt businesses to opt for air-defense systems to defend against drone attacksDrone strikes are prompting Russian businesses to lease or build air-defence systems and hire guardsRussia–Ukraine warRussiaUkraine
● mixedUK PM Burnham to set out economic vision as inflation, Iran war pose challengesUnited KingdomInflationIran
▼ bearishIndia-Pakistan Water Row Escalates: Shehbaz Sharif Issues 'Act Of War' Warning At UNShehbaz Sharif warned at the UN against using water as a tool of coercionIndia–PakistanPakistanShehbaz Sharif
● mixedSix big takeaways from a turbulent week of UN diplomacyUnited NationsUS–ChinaRussia–Ukraine war
▼ bearishIran Says No Nuclear Concessions Even If US Accepts Strait Of Hormuz ProposalIran says it will make no nuclear concessions even if the US accepts its Strait of Hormuz proposalIranStrait of HormuzMiddle East
● mixedUS pressure campaign cuts Iran’s banking and air links as war drags on - WSJIranBanksShipping routes
Policy▼ bearishHow Trump’s diesel ban threat is making US exports more profitableEurope faces diesel shortages after Iran-war supply losses and attacks on Russian oil refineriesDieselDonald TrumpIran
● mixedIndia rips into Pakistan's 'falsehoods', warns of consequences for terrorIndia warned Pakistan at the UN of consequences for continued terrorismIndia–PakistanPakistan
Market move▲ bullishCrude oil price dips as traders weigh US-Iran Hormuz talks, supply risksWest Texas Intermediate futures traded below $94 a barrelCrude oilStrait of HormuzIran
● mixedTaiwan says US arms support serves American interests after Trump-Xi summitTaiwanUS–ChinaDonald Trump
▼ bearishPak PM raises J&K issue at UNGA, credits Trump for 'intervention' in 2025Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday used the UN General Assembly podium to credit US President Donald Trump for his "timely intervention" in the 2025 conflict with IPakistanShehbaz SharifIndia–Pakistan
▼ bearishTrump rejects Iran proposal to reopen Hormuz as regional tensions persistTrump said he rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzIranDonald Trump
▼ bearishTrump rejects Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal; renewed bombing reportedly possibleTrump rejected Iran’s conditional seven-day ceasefire proposalIranDonald TrumpUS midterms
▼ bearishWSJ: Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire, Trump Says More Meetings with Xi, MoreDonald TrumpIranXi Jinping
● mixedSHEHBAZ SHARIF’S ‘PEACE’ Speech Comes With An ‘Act Of War’ Threat | FULL SPEECH | N18GShehbaz SharifIranHouthis
Market move▲ bullishOil Declines as Traders Weigh US, Iran Hormuz Talk ProgressOil fell on tentative signs of progress in US-Iran talks to reopen the Strait of HormuzCrude oilStrait of HormuzIran
● mixedTrump warns Xi against support for Iran — China gives conflicting assurancesUS says Beijing committed not to support Iran; an Iranian official says China intends to maintain its…Donald TrumpXi JinpingIran
● mixedEXCLUSIVE: Trump administration to meet Ukraine assistance deadlineDonald TrumpUkraineRussia–Ukraine war
● mixedTrump, Xi wrap state visit centered on spectacle over substance. Here are the top takeawaysTrump and Xi spent two days in Washington focused on ceremony, with few deliverablesDonald TrumpXi JinpingUS–China
Data● mixedEconomy resilient with downside risks from West Asia conflict: RBI bulletinMiddle EastRBIGlobal markets
● mixedPutin says all Ukraine peace proposals on table, but Russia must weigh its interestsVladimir PutinUkraineRussia
● mixedIndia, Turkey, Egypt part of talks to unblock Black Sea shipping: ZelenskyyIndia, Turkey and Egypt are among countries discussing ways to unblock Black Sea shippingUkraineShipping routesShipping and logistics
Market move▲ bullishSaudi Arabia crude oil exports hit highest level since Iran war began despite pipeline outageSaudi crude exports hit their highest level since the Iran war began despite a pipeline outageSaudi ArabiaCrude oilIran
Data● mixedRBI says resilient domestic economy cushions India against rising global risksThe RBI cited record forex reserves and a five-year high in net FDIRBIEconomic growthForex reserves
Market move▲ bullishOil prices fall after Iran asks U.S. to return to failed memorandum of understanding from JuneIran asked the U.S. to meet conditions in the June 17 memorandum of understandingIranCrude oilStrait of Hormuz
Policy● mixedUS’ Graham Act, trade restrictions are sustained coercion; US, China, EU weaponise trade: CEACEA called the US Graham Act and trade restrictions sustained coercionUS–ChinaTrade and tariffsChina
▼ bearishFrance to send troops to secure Saudi oil plant as Houthi attacks mountFrance will send troops to secure a Saudi oil plant as Houthi attacks mountSaudi ArabiaHouthisCrude oil
● mixedTrump’s Trade War: A News Guide to His Second Term as President - BloombergDonald TrumpTrade and tariffsUS–China
● mixedTrump told Xi that China’s assistance to Iran was unacceptable, US ambassador saysTrump told Xi that China helping Iran was unacceptableDonald TrumpXi JinpingChina
● mixedIndia to hold firm on Russian oil as US-China truce extension puts it in the spotlightIndia plans to hold firm on Russian oil during the US-China truce extensionRussian oilRussiaUS–China